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Apr 18, 2013
04/13
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we're seeing a difficult environment. now, people are a lot more positive about the u.s., so they're overweighting the u.s. the s. is still ary, very strong mark so many overweight that. and we're seeing a lot of regions like europe where investors are pretty much hands-off. so it depends, really, when you ask about how investors behave, where they come from, what region they're located in, and what region they invest in. european investors are, i would say, largely sitting on the sidelines. >> i'm going to come back to you in a moment. but let me ask you first about what's going on in the united states. a big debate about when the federal reserve is going to start winding down the stimulus. is there a downside risk to all of this free money, whether you look at what the fed has been doing with qe or what japan has been doing in terms of the stimulus there, the ecb as well. >> well, yes, it's very clear that central banks have been playing a very dominant role in the economy over the last couple of years. when i was at th
we're seeing a difficult environment. now, people are a lot more positive about the u.s., so they're overweighting the u.s. the s. is still ary, very strong mark so many overweight that. and we're seeing a lot of regions like europe where investors are pretty much hands-off. so it depends, really, when you ask about how investors behave, where they come from, what region they're located in, and what region they invest in. european investors are, i would say, largely sitting on the sidelines....
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Apr 23, 2013
04/13
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and that environment has a long tail to it, which should produce cash flow in the u.s. economy, 5% or better. >> so why isn't the public playing this market? why are they not in this market? >> the most recent memory in all of their heads, every single macro event risk they've all seen, whether it's the situation in europe or closer to home, the financial crisis, and that's going to last for quite a long period of time, especially since the household itself, the liability shelf, is still there and it's still in repair. >> and if anything that prolongs that rally, right? >> no question about it. that's the misguided notion out there, which is, you want to not all rush in there at once, but the reality is, no, that's where you get multiples go up to 18, 19 times and get the boom bust. the first move is cash to equities, not fixed income to equities. that second move is fixed income flows to equities, when the economy really gets above 3%. >> what are you going to buy here? >> well, we like almost everything in equities. our favorites would be the largest of the large cap
and that environment has a long tail to it, which should produce cash flow in the u.s. economy, 5% or better. >> so why isn't the public playing this market? why are they not in this market? >> the most recent memory in all of their heads, every single macro event risk they've all seen, whether it's the situation in europe or closer to home, the financial crisis, and that's going to last for quite a long period of time, especially since the household itself, the liability shelf, is...
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Apr 17, 2013
04/13
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a one-two punch over concerns between european credit and also some worries about the global growth environment. we think we may have a little bit of a pause here, but we're going to see continued growth through the year. it will be rewarded by take risk in the stock market. >> why? >> because with growth keeping up and inflation being under control, monetary policy is going to stay very easy, and we see that as being something that's going to lead to equity returns being positive. >> you have to admit, we've had a very good first quarter, 10% gains for most of the averages, 15% at the most extreme. aren't we due for a correction of some kind? >> well, we could absolutely have a pause here and a small correction wouldn't be off the realm, but without a big downturn in data or a big change in monetary policy expectations, i think it will be relative tame. >> what have you thought of the earnings so far this season? >> they've been modestly disappointing. we got some news today about corporate business jet appetite that was a little bit disappointing. but then look at the fed beige book report to
a one-two punch over concerns between european credit and also some worries about the global growth environment. we think we may have a little bit of a pause here, but we're going to see continued growth through the year. it will be rewarded by take risk in the stock market. >> why? >> because with growth keeping up and inflation being under control, monetary policy is going to stay very easy, and we see that as being something that's going to lead to equity returns being positive....
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Apr 24, 2013
04/13
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. >> yeah, so what do you want to do then, in this environment? knowing that the federal reserve is going to continue providing stimulus, that's not changing, so, okay, the economy might not be great, but the fed's there and that's certainly been fueling things since october or so. >> maria, i think we're going to see some growth in our economy because of all the expectation we have that we're going to get stimulus, finally, over in europe. and that's -- austerity has finally come home to roost with the germans. now they look over and go, wow, the americans are party, we're not, i think you're going to find, that's going -- if anything will drive us this summer, it's going to be the europeans. if that money comes over as we plan on the margins with the last 20% of our profit is coming from europe, i think that's going to help our stocks, if anything does, over the summer. >> europe -- are you saying buy europe? >> i would disagree with that. >> yeah -- >> i just don't see how europe -- >> i like europe. i like europe for the same reason i liked th
. >> yeah, so what do you want to do then, in this environment? knowing that the federal reserve is going to continue providing stimulus, that's not changing, so, okay, the economy might not be great, but the fed's there and that's certainly been fueling things since october or so. >> maria, i think we're going to see some growth in our economy because of all the expectation we have that we're going to get stimulus, finally, over in europe. and that's -- austerity has finally come...
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Apr 17, 2013
04/13
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stocks are great for the long-term, but in this environment, where sentiment, we've got unusually bearish quickly. we've got more weakness in store. >> so you would wait. this isn't necessarily an entry point for you, yet? >> no, if i had cash on the sidelines, pretty much at the close of today, the average stock in the s&p 500 was off about 7% from its 52-week high. the average technology stock, 11% from its 52-week high, if we get another 3% to 5% down in stocks, then i think that cash on the sidelines should be absolutely put to work, because the next two or three years still bodes quite well for the stock market relative to most other asset classes. >> i may have to break in momentarily when those american express earnings come out. but first, jerry webben, let me ask you, the fear has been this week with news out of china, some of the economic data that we've gotten here, that maybe the global growth rate is slowing down. do you sense that at all? >> i think, yes, both in the u.s. and in china, we've seen some slowness in the emerging markets and europe remains extremely weak, but yo
stocks are great for the long-term, but in this environment, where sentiment, we've got unusually bearish quickly. we've got more weakness in store. >> so you would wait. this isn't necessarily an entry point for you, yet? >> no, if i had cash on the sidelines, pretty much at the close of today, the average stock in the s&p 500 was off about 7% from its 52-week high. the average technology stock, 11% from its 52-week high, if we get another 3% to 5% down in stocks, then i think...
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Apr 23, 2013
04/13
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private equity is certainly doing well in this environment. i'm, i guess, a little surprised that we haven't seen more deals, given the fact that rates are at such low levels. shouldn't we be seeing a whole host of deal flow and deal activity? >> we should, and we may. i guess, the opposite side of a coin of a buoyant stock market is higher evaluations and less attractive targets in the public arena. as a stock holder, and i was glad to see blackstone back off from a bid on dell. but, you know, these companies are kind of out of the mainstream. if you're a stock holder, you're actually a unit holder. you get a k-1 form, as if you were a limited partner in almost a hedge fund. the accounting is eccentric, because, well, because gap doesn't quite do these companies justice. so you have to look at this so-called economic net income. and there's this seeming paradox of private equity companies being in the private market. and if private equities are so great, why are they public? there's a lot of bad will, i think, towards these companies, but the
private equity is certainly doing well in this environment. i'm, i guess, a little surprised that we haven't seen more deals, given the fact that rates are at such low levels. shouldn't we be seeing a whole host of deal flow and deal activity? >> we should, and we may. i guess, the opposite side of a coin of a buoyant stock market is higher evaluations and less attractive targets in the public arena. as a stock holder, and i was glad to see blackstone back off from a bid on dell. but, you...
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Apr 18, 2013
04/13
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your numbers show that with interest rates so low, it's really hard for you guys to make money in this environment. how do you feel about that? it's a double-edged sword, right? >> yeah, michelle, it is. so we actually make more money when rates are higher, so we'd like to see rates higher, particularly, a positive-sloping yield curve. you know, the fed has a strong view in consensus that rates need to stay low. i'm not generally in that camp. i think the early stages of qe were probably good. i think it's very debatable now whether it's doing any good or not. i personally think the economy trying to find its own natural structural, level of stabilization, and it's going to do that at its own pace, with or without qe. a lot of people disagree with that. but i think it's about confidence, not about how much qe we have. >> mr. king, appreciate your time, sir. thanks for joining us today. >> thank you very much. have a good day. >> great to have you on. >>> all right, stunning and frightening. just two terms to describe video that captures the situation that we saw in texas. >> yeah, we're going to g
your numbers show that with interest rates so low, it's really hard for you guys to make money in this environment. how do you feel about that? it's a double-edged sword, right? >> yeah, michelle, it is. so we actually make more money when rates are higher, so we'd like to see rates higher, particularly, a positive-sloping yield curve. you know, the fed has a strong view in consensus that rates need to stay low. i'm not generally in that camp. i think the early stages of qe were probably...